Rising overall global PMI and the indices for major sectors indicate expansion in output, new orders and employment. Global Manufacturing PMI has been rising since the last few months now and registered its highest reading since Mar-10. Global Services PMI rose to new highs as well, indicating expansion for the global economy going forward.
PMI for the Global economy implied strong recovery across all sectors in Apr-20. This was the first month since Jun-18, when all 21 sectors covered by IHS Markit in its PMI Global Index saw a broad-based increase in output. The month of Apr-21 also posted higher levels of new business and all sectors except one (tourism and recreation) posted higher levels of employment. Sectors such as banks, real estate, insurance, automobiles and auto parts and industrial services were the top 5 sectors in terms of expansion in output, while banks, real estate, technology equipment and software services saw the largest expansion in employment. Tourism & recreation saw the first expansion in activity in Apr-21 since Jan-20 and with mobility increasing across and within countries, it is likely to expand further in the coming months.
Global Manufacturing PMI signaled strengthened activity at the beginning of the second quarter of 2021. The Index released by JP Morgan and IHS Markit rose to 55.8 in Apr-21 from 55.0 in Mar-21, reaching its highest level since Mar-10. All the components of the manufacturing PMI showed expansion boding well for a strong economic recovery. Output index increased to 55.7 in Apr-21 from 55.0 in Mar-21, New Orders index rose to 56.7 from 55.8, New Export Orders Index rose to 54.7 from 53.5, Future Output Index increased to 66.6 from 66.5 and Employment Index rose to 52.5 from 51.6. Input and Output Prices Index also increased further in Apr-21, however input prices reflected faster expansion implying supply bottleneck and lower throughput from input to output prices. Of the 24 nations for which PMI data were available, 21 saw expansion, excluding 3 showing contraction (Mexico, Myanmar and Philippines). Amongst the ones saw that saw expansion, the Eurozone economies, Taiwan, UK, US and Australia saw the largest PMI manufacturing readings indicating sharpest expansions.
Global Services PMI also saw an impressive rise in Apr-21, with all major components hinting at continued expansion in global services activity, output, export orders, and employment. Amongst major sectors, business services and financial services have been seeing sharp expansion, while consumer services activity remains subdued.
Global employment rose for eighth straight month in Apr-21, with the pace of job creation accelerating to a 160-month high. Employment increased at record rates in the US and strong growth was also seen in Germany, UK and Australia. However, countries such as Brazil, India and Italy were the only nations to see employment fall.
The outlook for global economic recovery remains highly positive at the beginning of the second quarter, with companies expecting output to rise further in the coming months.
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