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    Brazil's 2018-19 cotton crop to make new record: CEPEA

    18
    Jan '19
    Brazil
    The 2018-19 Brazilian cotton crop may once again hit a record in terms of production, boosted by increase in crop area, according to Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA). The area under cotton has increased due to higher profitability of cotton compared to other crops and to the favourable scenario for anticipated contracts.

    As a result, for the second year in a row, Brazil would be the fourth largest cotton producer in the world. In terms of exports, if it surpasses India, it may be the second biggest exporter, only after the United States.

    Meanwhile, data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) indicates that 670,300 tons of cotton was exported in the last five months of 2018. In December 2018 alone, the monthly volume hit the record of 214,600 tons. If the current phase continues, total volume of cotton exported till July 2019 may surpass 2017-18 domestic surplus of 1.3 million tons.

    The area under cotton has risen by 23.2 per cent, as per estimates of Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Even if the yield decreases 4.4 per cent to 1,633 kilos per hectare, total cotton production would be 2.364 million tons, i.e. 17.8 per cent more than the previous season.

    Conab forecasts domestic consumption to increase by 7.1 per cent over 2017-18 crop to 750,000 tons in 2018-19, the highest in three seasons. As a result, for 2018-19, Conab estimates a total supply (initial stocks + production + imports) of 2.99 million tons and total demand (domestic consumption + exports) of 2.2 million tons. Therefore, ending inventories would be 859,900 tons.

    The 2018-19 harvest would be available in market from August 2019 onwards, and would meet the demand until July 2020. For this period, the domestic surplus would total 1.6 million tons, a new record. (RKS)

    Fibre2Fashion News Desk ¨C India


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